Will the number of states ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court increase by at least two by the end of 2029?
Resolves: YES if the official number of States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, as reported by the ICC, increases by two or more compared to the number on 2026-10-10, by 2029-12-31. NO otherwise.
Will the number of states ratifying the Rome Statute of the Internati…
Market overview
The Nobel Peace Prize awarded for promoting international law, particularly to a former ICJ judge, could inspire renewed commitment to international justice. This recognition might encourage more countries to join foundational treaties like the Rome Statute, which establishes the International Criminal Court.
Politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 35%
- Closes
- 2029-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the official number of States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, as reported by the ICC, increases by two or more compared to the number on 2026-10-10, by 2029-12-31. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
More Politics markets
- JD Vance partnership or acquisition announced? — 44% Yes
- Virgin Galactic major announcement before March 2027? — 36% Yes
- Will BRICS dominate headlines in the next 12-18 months? — 33% Yes
- Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? — 66% Yes
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000? — 24% Yes
- Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? — 98% Yes
- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? — 4% Yes
- Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? — 24% Yes