Global conflict-driven displacements will rise to 35 million in 2026

Market overview

The 60% year-over-year increase in 2025 suggests sustained or worsening global instability. Recent escalations in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan indicate no immediate resolution to conflict drivers.

event prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

More event markets

• Scottish government orders Higher Maths exam review by November 2027 — 75% Yes
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• Sudan overtakes Syria as top country for conflict-driven internal displacement — 85% Yes
• Witkoff Rubio-Qatar Deal Collapses Due to Geopolitical Risks — 60% Yes
• Kevin Kiley's petition fails to secure 218 signatures by end of 2026 — 65% Yes
• Frederica Wilson loses 2026 Florida primary bid — 62% Yes
• US Southwest faces record heatwave by May 18 2026 — 85% Yes
• Eurovision bans Israel for 2028 due to ongoing Gaza conflict — 55% Yes

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