Brent crude exceeds $110 per barrel by July 2026

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, with both the U.S. and Iran exchanging fire and accusing each other of initiating attacks. The fragile ceasefire has been repeatedly violated, increasing the risk of prolonged supply disruptions. Brent crude futures are currently at $102.32 per barrel, and further escalation could push prices above $110.

Implied probability (Yes)

75%