Global bond yields will rise by at least 50bps by 2026-12-31

The record short position by banks suggests a bet against bond prices, which typically correlates with rising yields. With inflation expectations still elevated and central banks potentially constrained by fiscal pressures, yields are likely to trend higher. Historical precedents of large short positions often precede significant yield spikes.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-12-31

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