Oil prices rise by 5% within 10 days if Iran escalates Hormuz tensions

If Iran does not comply with the U.S. demand and escalates attacks or blockades, global oil markets will react sharply. The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil supply, and any disruption would trigger a supply shock. Brent crude prices would likely surge by 5% or more within 10 days.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2026-07-22

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →