Smullen wins NY-21 Republican primary by 5+ points

Market overview

Robert Smullen's long-standing rivalry with Elise Stefanik culminates in a primary challenge where he secures at least a 5-point victory. Smullen's rural policy focus and grassroots support in the North Country outweigh Stefanik's national profile.

politics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

More politics markets

• JD Vance partnership or acquisition announced? — 44% Yes
• Kim Jong Un faces significant controversy? — 57% Yes
• Will Unicorn Companies dominate headlines in the next 6-10 months? — 77% Yes
• Will new charges be filed related to Donald Trump by H1 2026? — 18% Yes
• Will Donald Trump reach a settlement in Epstein-related lawsuits by June 2026? — 7% Yes
• Will Bill Clinton be subpoenaed in connection with Epstein case by Q2 2026? — 64% Yes
• Will Donald Trump make public statements about Epstein connections by March 2026? — 86% Yes
• Will Bill Clinton be subpoenaed in connection with Epstein case by Q1 2026? — 27% Yes

Browse all politics markets →