Will the Strait of Hormuz experience a significant disruption to oil tanker traffic due to Iranian actions by December 31, 2024?

The headline implies a reopening and stability in the Strait of Hormuz due to a deal. This question tests the counter-scenario, where despite potential talks, tensions could still lead to disruptions. The probability is low if a deal progresses, but still a possibility given past incidents.

Implied probability (Yes)

20%

Closes

2026-09-10