Will the United States formally negotiate a ceasefire or peace agreement regarding the conflict between Israel and Iran by December 31, 2024?

This question explores the extent of US diplomatic involvement in resolving potential escalation between Israel and Iran, as suggested by the headline's implication of external control over the conflict's end. A 'YES' resolution requires a publicly announced and verifiable US-led negotiation effort resulting in a formal agreement.

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2026-09-02