Keir Starmer resigns as UK Prime Minister by June 10

Market overview

Starmer will resign as UK Prime Minister and Labour leader if Wes Streeting's leadership challenge gains sufficient support by May 31, triggering a leadership election. The resignation will be announced in a televised address to the nation on or before June 10.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

More leadership markets

• Starmer survives leadership challenge, cabinet reshuffle by September 2027 — 55% Yes
• Labour MPs to trigger leadership challenge within 30 days — 60% Yes
• Labour Party replaces Starmer with Angela Rayner by 2027 — 45% Yes
• Prince Harry meets King Charles III during UK visit — 45% Yes
• Andy Burnham will win a parliamentary seat by 2028 — 60% Yes
• Labour Party removes Starmer as leader by October 2028 — 70% Yes
• Keir Starmer will survive Streeting's challenge by 2028-10-31 — 75% Yes
• Wes Streeting will announce a leadership bid against Keir Starmer by July 2027 — 70% Yes

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