user-generated· macro
Oil prices rise 15% if Hormuz attacks resume by 2026-09-01
Global oil prices will increase by at least 15% from current levels if Iran resumes attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz by 2026-09-01. The strait accounts for 20% of global oil and LNG transit, and renewed attacks would disrupt supply chains and heighten geopolitical risk.
macro · Prediction Market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 55%
- Closes
- 2026-09-01
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