Fed holds rates unchanged at next meeting in July 2026

The June minutes emphasized a lack of forward guidance and dependence on incoming data. With no clear consensus emerging from the 'family fight,' the Fed is highly likely to maintain the status quo at the July 2026 meeting, avoiding immediate policy shifts amid uncertainty.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

85%

Closes

2026-10-06

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →