Nikkei 225 falls below 32,000 by July 20 2026

The Nikkei 225 will drop below 32,000 points within two weeks as investor risk aversion grows due to oil price spikes and geopolitical instability in Asia. Japanese equities are highly sensitive to energy costs and regional security concerns.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

68%

Closes

2026-07-20

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →