Fed maintains pause stance if April jobs growth is 50,000–85,000

JPMorgan’s base case expects 50,000 jobs added in April, aligning with a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market. Such growth would likely reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see approach, delaying rate cuts or hikes. If payrolls grow between 50,000 and 85,000, the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting.

Implied probability (Yes)

75%