ICE arrests increase by over 10% before election
Resolves: YES if ICE's reported arrest numbers for the 30 days ending Nov 3, 2026, are >10% higher than for the 30 days ending Oct 4, 2026.
user-generated· regulatory
ICE arrests increase by over 10% before election
Market overview
ICE arrests increase by more than 10% in the 30 days leading up to the 2026 midterm election compared to the prior month.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-11-15
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
YES if ICE's reported arrest numbers for the 30 days ending Nov 3, 2026, are >10% higher than for the 30 days ending Oct 4, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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