US imposes export controls on SpaceXAI Grok 4.5 by December 2026

Market overview

SpaceXAI's Grok 4.5 model, released in July 2026, represents a significant leap in AI capability. Given escalating national security concerns and bipartisan pressure to restrict advanced AI access to adversarial nations, the US government is likely to formalize export controls within five months.

regulatory prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-12-31

More regulatory markets

• UK government increases teacher pay offer by 2%+ in 2027 — 45% Yes
• FIFA issues formal disciplinary action against Trump by 2026-12-31 — 70% Yes
• UK government to allocate £200M for river clean-up by 2026 — 70% Yes
• FIFA issues formal reprimand against U.S. Soccer for Trump interference — 75% Yes
• Trump administration implements AI guardrails by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• Senate blocks OMB grant rule by December 2026 — 72% Yes
• Biden administration approves ICE detention project within 6 months — 40% Yes
• Forge Global secures Anthropic approval within 6 months — 75% Yes

Browse all regulatory markets →