SEC approves first tokenized U.S. Treasury ETF by October 2026

Market overview

The SEC will approve the first tokenized U.S. Treasury ETF by October 2026, following increased lobbying from asset managers and bipartisan support for blockchain-based financial products.

regulatory prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2026-10-31

More regulatory markets

• UK government increases teacher pay offer by 2%+ in 2027 — 45% Yes
• FIFA issues formal disciplinary action against Trump by 2026-12-31 — 70% Yes
• UK government to allocate £200M for river clean-up by 2026 — 70% Yes
• FIFA issues formal reprimand against U.S. Soccer for Trump interference — 75% Yes
• Trump administration implements AI guardrails by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• Senate blocks OMB grant rule by December 2026 — 72% Yes
• Biden administration approves ICE detention project within 6 months — 40% Yes
• Forge Global secures Anthropic approval within 6 months — 75% Yes

Browse all regulatory markets →