Reform UK loses at least one MP seat in next general election
Resolves: Final general election results show Reform UK holding fewer seats than in the 2024 election.
user-generated· event
Reform UK loses at least one MP seat in next general election
Market overview
Ongoing scandals, including the undeclared gifts and Farage's leadership controversies, reduce Reform UK's electoral support. Polling data shows a 3-5 percentage point decline in Reform's vote share, translating to lost seats in key constituencies.
event prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-11-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Final general election results show Reform UK holding fewer seats than in the 2024 election.
Source: user-generated
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