Chancellor Merz to resign by year-end

Market overview

AfD's Saxony-Anhalt win accelerates Chancellor Friedrich Merz's political decline.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-12-31

Source: user-generated

More leadership markets

• Starmer survives leadership challenge, cabinet reshuffle by September 2027 — 55% Yes
• Labour MPs to trigger leadership challenge within 30 days — 60% Yes
• Labour Party replaces Starmer with Angela Rayner by 2027 — 45% Yes
• Prince Harry meets King Charles III during UK visit — 45% Yes
• Andy Burnham will win a parliamentary seat by 2028 — 60% Yes
• Labour Party removes Starmer as leader by October 2028 — 70% Yes
• Keir Starmer will survive Streeting's challenge by 2028-10-31 — 75% Yes
• Wes Streeting will announce a leadership bid against Keir Starmer by July 2027 — 70% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →