UK retail sales decline in Q3 2027 as consumer front-loading unwinds

UK retail sales surged in Q1 2025 due to front-loaded spending, but this trend is unsustainable. With economic growth slowing and inflation pressures mounting, UK retail sales will decline in Q3 2025 as consumers prioritize essentials over discretionary purchases.

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

Closes

2027-12-31