Iran exports 500,000+ barrels of oil daily despite U.S. sanctions escalation by October 2026

Despite U.S. pressure and potential escalation of sanctions, Iran will find ways to bypass restrictions (e.g., via third-party buyers or smuggling) and maintain oil exports above 500,000 barrels per day through October 2026. Iran has historically evaded sanctions with moderate success.

Implied probability (Yes)

65%