Fed cuts rates by Dec 2026, triggering momentum ETF rebound

The Fed’s June 2026 hawkish stance has weighed on momentum stocks. If core inflation cools further or growth slows, the Fed is likely to cut rates by December 2026. Such a pivot would reduce pressure on high-momentum, rate-sensitive stocks like chip makers, sparking a rebound in MTUM.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

Closes

2026-12-31

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →