Trump appoints a less controversial Fed nominee within 6 months

Market overview

After Warsh's rejection, Trump will nominate a Fed Board candidate with stronger bipartisan appeal, such as a former regulator or academic with a balanced policy record. This move aims to avoid a prolonged vacancy that could undermine Fed credibility.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

More leadership markets

• Starmer survives leadership challenge, cabinet reshuffle by September 2027 — 55% Yes
• Labour MPs to trigger leadership challenge within 30 days — 60% Yes
• Labour Party replaces Starmer with Angela Rayner by 2027 — 45% Yes
• Prince Harry meets King Charles III during UK visit — 45% Yes
• Andy Burnham will win a parliamentary seat by 2028 — 60% Yes
• Labour Party removes Starmer as leader by October 2028 — 70% Yes
• Keir Starmer will survive Streeting's challenge by 2028-10-31 — 75% Yes
• Wes Streeting will announce a leadership bid against Keir Starmer by July 2027 — 70% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →