China exports growth falls below 5% YoY by Q3 2026

China's export growth, currently at 14.1% YoY, will decelerate to below 5% YoY by the end of Q3 2026 due to fading stockpiling demand and potential softening in global consumer spending. Elevated input prices and prolonged geopolitical tensions will further weigh on export competitiveness.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%