Xavier Becerra wins California Democratic nomination

Market overview

Xavier Becerra has surged in polls since Eric Swalwell's exit, positioning him as the leading Democratic candidate. Newsom may reluctantly endorse him to prevent a Republican lockout.

event prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Source: user-generated

More event markets

• AOC announces 2028 presidential campaign — 70% Yes
• Another U.S. yen intervention before 2027 — 50% Yes
• Origem’s $2.5B valuation triggers rival M&A in Brazilian energy sector by Q3 2027 — 55% Yes
• NY budget deadlock leads to government shutdown by August 2026 — 40% Yes
• England wins the 2026 World Cup — 60% Yes
• JPMorgan Chase acquires a mid-tier regional bank by 2027 — 60% Yes
• Arizona election audit delays 2026 midterms certification — 72% Yes
• OpenAI joins Nvidia agent safety consortium — 70% Yes

Browse all event markets →