July 4 weekend fireworks bans reduce reported wildfires by 20% in aff…

At least 15 states have imposed partial or total fireworks bans due to extreme wildfire risk. Past data from 2023 and 2024 suggests such bans correlate with a measurable reduction in fire starts during holiday periods. States with bans include Colorado, Utah, and parts of California.

regulatory · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2026-07-07

More regulatory markets

• UK government increases teacher pay offer by 2%+ in 2027 — 45% Yes
• UK government to allocate £200M for river clean-up by 2026 — 70% Yes
• Trump administration implements AI guardrails by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• Mississippi will revoke xAI's turbine loophole by Q4 2026 — 75% Yes
• UK comedy festivals collectively adopt upfront payment policies within 12 months — 75% Yes
• Federal gas tax suspended before 2027 election — 30% Yes
• Ushuaia landfill cleared as hantavirus source by June 2028 — 60% Yes
• Forge Global secures Anthropic approval within 6 months — 75% Yes

Browse all regulatory markets →