UK mortgage approvals fall 15% by 2027 Q1

Higher mortgage costs will reduce affordability, leading to a 15% decline in mortgage approvals by the first quarter of 2027 compared to the same period in 2026. This will be driven by both higher interest rates and stricter lending criteria from banks.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2027-03-31

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• IDMC annual report shows 40m+ total displacements in 2026 — 80% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →