Will the final results of the Icelandic EU referendum show a 'Yes' vote for EU membership by a margin greater than 2 percentage points?
Resolves: YES if the official final results of the referendum, as announced by Icelandic electoral authorities, show the 'Yes' vote for EU membership exceeding the 'No' vote by more than 2 percentage points. NO otherwise.
Will the final results of the Icelandic EU referendum show a 'Yes' vo…
Market overview
The term 'knife-edge' suggests a very close result. A margin greater than 2% would indicate a more decisive outcome than typically expected from such a description.
Politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 20%
- Closes
- 2026-11-28
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the official final results of the referendum, as announced by Icelandic electoral authorities, show the 'Yes' vote for EU membership exceeding the 'No' vote by more than 2 percentage points. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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