Will Iran's crude oil exports increase by more than 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from current levels by December 31, 2027?

A key outcome of successful U.S.-Iran talks could be the easing of sanctions, allowing Iran to significantly increase its oil exports. However, even with an agreement, ramping up production and navigating logistical challenges takes time, and the extent of sanctions relief is uncertain.

Implied probability (Yes)

35%

Closes

2029-08-27