S&P 500 falls at least 1% if April unemployment rate rises above 4.5%

JPMorgan highlights that a weak labor market could exacerbate stagflation fears. If the unemployment rate jumps above 4.5%, investors may flee equities, triggering a sharp sell-off. Given historical sensitivity to unemployment spikes, we assign a 60% probability to this outcome.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%