Will the number of Chinese AI researchers returning to China from the U.S. decrease by more than 10% in 2025 compared to 2024?

If China is successfully poaching talent, it implies a net outflow or at least a sustained return rate. A significant decrease in this trend would suggest a shift in dynamics, perhaps due to U.S. retention efforts or changes in China's appeal.

Implied probability (Yes)

20%

Closes

2026-06-30