AGI will surpass human performance in 50% of tasks by 2027
Resolves: AGI is demonstrated in peer-reviewed benchmarks to outperform median human performance in at least 50% of economically valuable tasks as measured by standardized AI evaluation frameworks (e.g., AGIEval, BIG-bench).
AGI will surpass human performance in 50% of tasks by 2027
Market overview
The glossary defines AGI as highly autonomous systems outperforming humans in most economically valuable work. Historical trends in AI benchmarks suggest rapid progress toward this milestone could be achieved within a year, driven by advances in model architectures and compute scaling.
tech_stocks prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2027-07-05
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
AGI is demonstrated in peer-reviewed benchmarks to outperform median human performance in at least 50% of economically valuable tasks as measured by standardized AI evaluation frameworks (e.g., AGIEval, BIG-bench).
Source: user-generated
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