German 10-year bund yield reaches 2.8% by December 2026
Resolves: The closing yield on the German 10-year bund on December 31, 2026, as reported by the ECB, is at or above 2.8%.
user-generated· macro
German 10-year bund yield reaches 2.8% by December 2026
Market overview
The German 10-year bund yield will climb to 2.8% by December 2026 due to rising inflation expectations and ECB rate hike projections. Market participants anticipate tighter monetary policy amid sustained economic growth and wage pressure.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The closing yield on the German 10-year bund on December 31, 2026, as reported by the ECB, is at or above 2.8%.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- US-China trade deal framework announced within 3 months — 68% Yes
- US LNG export capacity increases by 10% by 2029 — 65% Yes
- House passes major 2026 budget bill before midterm elections — 70% Yes
- USD/JPY falls below 145 by November 2026 due to bond demand — 60% Yes
- World Bank approves $1.5B loan to Venezuela by December 2026 — 70% Yes
- Homeownership rates for Gen Z will decline — 75% Yes
- Warsh’s Fed accelerates balance sheet reduction by 2027 — 60% Yes
- UK stock market drops 5% within 30 days of Starmer resignation — 55% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…