Angela Rayner will emerge as the next UK Labour Party leader by September 2027

Angela Rayner has positioned herself as a potential successor, threatening to canvass support if Starmer’s speech disappoints. With Starmer’s approval plummeting and Rayner’s influence in the party, she is the most likely candidate to lead a leadership contest and win.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2027-12-31