Will the price of live cattle futures (CME Lean Hog Futures, nearest active contract) decrease by more than 5% from its closing price on August 1, 2024, by September 30, 2024, due to screwworm fears?

The re-emergence of screwworm could impact cattle health and supply, potentially affecting market prices. However, the market's reaction to localized outbreaks can be limited unless the threat becomes widespread.

Implied probability (Yes)

25%

Closes

2026-09-02