Will the Strait of Hormuz be fully reopened to all commercial shipping without significant disruption by June 30, 2027?

Trump's statement links a potential deal to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This question assesses if the strait will operate without any major, state-sponsored disruptions or blockades for commercial vessels by mid-2024.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2029-08-22