10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5% by end of June 2026

A persistent inflation shock will drive long-term bond yields higher as investors demand greater compensation for holding duration risk. The 10-year yield has averaged ~3.8% in 2026 but could surge if Fed hawkishness or inflation persistence becomes entrenched. This would reflect a repricing of nominal growth and policy uncertainty.

Implied probability (Yes)

68%