Will the UK's official defense spending as a percentage of GDP for the 2024 calendar year exceed 2.2% by March 31, 2025?

The 'deepening row' implies a push for higher defense spending. While a direct increase might be difficult, the government might aim to meet or slightly exceed targets. The current NATO target is 2%, but pressure could push it higher.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2026-09-09