Strait of Hormuz reopens by Q4 2026, easing gas prices

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz will de-escalate sufficiently to allow normal shipping traffic by October 31, 2026. Thune's statement linking gas price relief to Hormuz reopening suggests a direct correlation. Diplomatic pressure and regional stability efforts are likely to yield results within this timeframe.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%