UK 10-year gilt yields exceed 5.5% by October 2027

Investors will increasingly price in fiscal risks under potential new Labour leadership, driving UK 10-year gilt yields above 5.13% to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Rising oil prices ($100+/barrel) and inflation concerns will exacerbate this trend.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2027-12-31