BNY Mellon-managed Trump Accounts underperform S&P 500 by 2028
Resolves: The average annualized return of Trump Accounts (as reported by BNY Mellon) for the period 2026-07-04 to 2028-12-31 is at least 5 percentage points below the S&P 500 total return over the same period.
BNY Mellon-managed Trump Accounts underperform S&P 500 by 2028
Market overview
By December 31, 2028, the average annual return of assets in Trump Accounts managed by BNY Mellon will lag the S&P 500 total return by at least 5 percentage points. Underperformance is likely due to conservative fund selection and high fees relative to index funds.
price prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2028-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The average annualized return of Trump Accounts (as reported by BNY Mellon) for the period 2026-07-04 to 2028-12-31 is at least 5 percentage points below the S&P 500 total return over the same period.
Source: user-generated
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