Russian oil output drops 15% within 12 months due to drone strikes
Resolves: Russian crude oil production falls below 9.5 million barrels per day (down 15% from 11.2 million bpd in June 2026) for at least one month within the 12-month period ending July 9, 2027.
user-generated· price
Russian oil output drops 15% within 12 months due to drone strikes
Market overview
Ukraine’s deep drone strikes on Russian refineries will cause Russian oil production to decline by at least 15% by July 2027. Infrastructure damage and operational disruptions will outweigh any compensatory measures.
price prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2027-07-09
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Russian crude oil production falls below 9.5 million barrels per day (down 15% from 11.2 million bpd in June 2026) for at least one month within the 12-month period ending July 9, 2027.
Source: user-generated
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