BoE raises base rate by 50bps within 3 months of next supply shock

If a significant supply shock (e.g., energy price spike or geopolitical disruption) materializes, the Bank of England will implement a minimum 50 basis point rate hike within 90 days to curb inflationary pressures. Prior speeches indicate hawkish tendencies, and market pricing suggests limited tolerance for inflation overshoots.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%