Catnip lotion outsells DEET-based repellents by 2027
Resolves: Global DEET-based mosquito repellent unit sales drop by ≥15% in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to 2026 levels, while catnip lotion sales surpass DEET in the same region.
user-generated· adoption
Catnip lotion outsells DEET-based repellents by 2027
Market overview
Given the 6% catnip lotion's equal efficacy and 90% lower cost, rural and low-income markets will shift preference to the homegrown alternative. DEET repellent sales decline by at least 15% in Sub-Saharan Africa within 12 months of commercial launch.
adoption prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2027-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Global DEET-based mosquito repellent unit sales drop by ≥15% in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to 2026 levels, while catnip lotion sales surpass DEET in the same region.
Source: user-generated
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