Will at least one incumbent Republican member of the U.S. Congress who voted for Trump's impeachment or conviction lose their primary election in 2027?

Trump's 'retribution tour' is likely to target Republicans he views as disloyal, particularly those who voted for his impeachment or conviction. This question gauges the success of such efforts in the 2024 primary cycle. A 'YES' resolution requires at least one of these specific incumbents to be defeated in their primary.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2029-08-25