Will a company with a market capitalization exceeding $100 billion at its IPO be included in the S&P 500 within one year of its public listing, by December 31, 2026?

This question tests the broader impact of S&P's current stance on mega IPOs. It examines whether any future large IPO will circumvent or overcome the current restrictions to achieve rapid S&P 500 inclusion.

Implied probability (Yes)

20%

Closes

2026-12-31