Will the number of new confirmed Ebola cases in North Kivu, DRC, decrease by at least 50% in the month following any announced ceasefire agreement?

A ceasefire is expected to improve access for health workers, which should lead to a reduction in new cases. However, the impact might not be immediate or as drastic due to existing community mistrust and the incubation period of the virus.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2026-08-25