Nigel Farage to increase Reform UK's polling lead by 2027-01-31
Resolves: Reform UK's polling average (aggregated from YouGov, Survation, and Deltapoll) exceeds 20% in the final week of January 2027
user-generated· politics
Nigel Farage to increase Reform UK's polling lead by 2027-01-31
Market overview
Nigel Farage will leverage Widdecombe's death to galvanize support, pushing Reform UK's polling average above 20% by January 2027. The party's anti-establishment messaging will resonate post-incident.
politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2027-01-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Reform UK's polling average (aggregated from YouGov, Survation, and Deltapoll) exceeds 20% in the final week of January 2027
Source: user-generated
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