Red states lead Obamacare enrollment growth by 2028
Resolves: Federal ACA enrollment data shows red states (e.g., Texas, Florida, Oklahoma) have higher enrollment growth rates than blue states (e.g., California, New York) from Q3 2026 to Q2 2028.
user-generated· adoption
Red states lead Obamacare enrollment growth by 2028
Market overview
Republican-led states that previously rejected Medicaid expansion will see the fastest enrollment growth due to targeted state-level subsidies and outreach programs. Texas and Florida will outpace traditional blue states.
adoption prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2028-06-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Federal ACA enrollment data shows red states (e.g., Texas, Florida, Oklahoma) have higher enrollment growth rates than blue states (e.g., California, New York) from Q3 2026 to Q2 2028.
Source: user-generated
More adoption markets
- European AI model startup raises $500M+ by end of 2026 — 60% Yes
- Owen Cooper's career accelerates with leading film role within 12 months — 68% Yes
- Anthropic joins SynthID watermarking program within 12 months — 60% Yes
- Forge Global and Sydecar to lose 20% of trading volume by August 2026 — 70% Yes
- Gotham FC's average home attendance increases by 20% in 2028 season — 75% Yes
- Chainalysis raises $200M by Q1 2027 following event — 55% Yes
- Wispr daily active users exceed 5 million by 2026-12-31 — 70% Yes
- Commodity trading firms shift 20% of Asia-Pacific gold orders to Hong Kong by 2027 — 60% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…