user-generated· Economics
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 4.5% at any point during 2027?
Market overview
Aggressive monetary tightening often leads to a slowdown in economic activity and potentially higher unemployment. This question explores a potential side effect of the Fed's 'more tightening ahead' strategy.
Economics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 30%
- Closes
- 2028-01-10
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a monthly unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) above 4.5% for any month from January 2027 to December 2027, inclusive. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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