Will Iran's total crude oil exports, as reported by the IEA, fall below 1.0 million barrels per day for any single month by March 31, 2025?

Kharg Island is central to Iran's oil exports. Escalating threats from the US, particularly those targeting oil infrastructure or shipping, could significantly impact Iran's ability to export oil, potentially driving down overall export figures despite attempts to circumvent sanctions.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2026-09-09